Powerful Typhoon Ma-On Targeting Japan

Typhoon Ma-On, now packing the strength of a Category 3 hurricane, continues to threaten Japan.

Landfall in southern Japan is a distinct possibility as early as Monday
night local time and recent data is even more threatening.


Winds in Ma-On strengthened from 105 mph to 135 mph on Friday before
weakening slightly. The storm has since re-strengthened slightly today
and further intensification is expected as it passes across the
extremely warm waters of the Philippine Sea.

Ma-On will reach its peak intensity later this weekend, and it may
become a super typhoon with sustained winds near 150 mph range.

Although not expected to be in the direct path, U.S. military bases in
Okinawa will likely have strong winds and heavy rainfall this weekend
from the outer bands of Ma-On.


The storm will continue to turn northwest through the rest of today,
before turning northward and eventually northeastward on Sunday and
Monday. The earlier the turn to the north occurs, the better chance
Ma-On will miss a direct landfall on southern Japan.


However, the most likely track at this time takes Ma-On into the Kyushu
or Shikoku islands in southern Japan early next week. As mentioned
above, recent data shows that this re-curve will occur even slower and
that is why we think the threat to Japan is increasing.

Widespread adverse impacts from rain, wind and heavy seas would result
from a direct hit on the southern mainland. Heavy rain, high winds and
rough seas could also impact the site of the tsunami and nuclear
disaster north of Tokyo.

Storms of the kind that Ma-On is likely to become can unload extreme
rainfall of 10 to 20 inches, with flooding and mudslides, upon reaching
Japan.


Greater Tokyo is unlikely to feel the worst of the storm, no matter its
ultimate track. Still, flooding rain and damaging winds could hit at
midweek or a day before. However, there is enough uncertainty in the
track of Ma-On that we cannot say that a direct hit is not possible.


Heavy rainfall is expected in the tsunami-ravaged areas north of Tokyo.
Late in May, Typhoon Songda brought 4-8 inches of rain to this area,
triggering flooding that killed more than 10 people. Typhoon Songda,
also brought wind gusts of 125 mph to Okinawa.

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